In developing a portfolio strategy, we periodically evaluate a number of macroeconomic indicators including global industrial production, consumption, fiscal policies, monetary policies, and demographics.  Our objective is to identify the secular forces that will direct capital flows and influence asset valuations.  We use our analysis to develop expectations for economic growth, interest rates, returns, and risks across global markets and asset classes over a 3-5 year horizon. These expectations provide the framework to identify investment ideas and themes, quantify opportunities and risks, and define allocations across asset classes in the portfolio.

In addition to this secular outlook, we assess economic data, economic trends, asset returns, and valuations across sectors on a quarterly basis to develop a forecast for economic growth, interest rates, valuations, and risks over for the next 12-18 months.  We use our quarterly forecast to determine what, if any, incremental changes need to be made in our portfolios in the context of our forecast.

Our secular and cyclical outlook provides a continuously evolving framework to screen investible themes and ideas. To implement investible themes in our portfolios, we select securities after fundamental analysis of cash flows, credit, valuation, and risks of companies, securitized assets, and sovereign issuers in the context of historical and expected returns. We believe that the price paid for an asset is the primary driver of long- term returns and that permanent principal loss results from overpaying for an asset.

Our investment process seeks to identify tradeoffs between risks and returns associated with global asset classes and to make investments that reflect our analysis. As a cornerstone of our strategy, we apply risk management techniques to develop portfolio strategy, generate ideas, minimize volatility of returns through the investment cycle, and exploit variances between risk and valuation created by macroeconomic and market trends.

Investment decisions and every position in the portfolios are reviewed and discussed with the Investment Committee, which includes Benjamin Trosky, Charles Wyman, and Steven Wasserman.